Commodity prices have pulled back from recent highs amid mounting concern over an economic slowdown, but Goldman Sachs said the growth creates a prime buying opportunity. “Buy commodities now, worry about the recession later,” read the title of the firm’s Monday note to clients. Goldman said that commodities are pricing in a recession outlook more than any other asset class, while the firm’s economists believe a recession outside Europe over the next 12 months is unlikely. “Macro data points to a deceleration but no contraction as weakness in manufacturing is contrasted with a still-strong services sector, partly on a travel boom,” said Goldman analysts led by Sabien Schels. Against this backdrop, Goldman said that commodities are the “best asset to own late cycle.” Equities, for instance, could suffer from surging inflation, which is running at levels that are the hottest in four decades. For commodities, on the other hand, even if demand growth slows, it’s still poised to remain above supply, thereby supporting prices. West Texas Intermediate crude , the US oil benchmark, traded around $94 per barrel on Monday — far below recent highs. In March, WTI shot above $130 per barrel for the first time since 2008 as Russia’s invasion of Ukraine sent global energy markets reeling. Goldman said the physical market for spot deliveries of oil is showing signs of being the tightest in decades as demand continues to recover while producers keep supply in check. “As further inventory falls trigger depletion risks, commodity returns for investors are likely to strengthen,” the firm said. “With oil the commodity of last resort in an era of severe energy shortages, we believe the pullback in the entire oil complex provides an attractive entry point for long-only investments,” Goldman added. Energy stocks have been a bright spot during the recent market downturn. The group advanced 4.3% last week, making it the only S & P sector that was higher during the five-day stretch. For the year, it’s the top sector by a long shot, soaring 49%. Utilities are second-best, up 5.4%. Berkshire Hathaway favorite Occidental Petroleum is the top-performing stock within the energy sector after its shares have surged 154% this year. Hess Corporation, Devon Energy, Marathon Petroleum and Coterra have all gained more than 60%. That said, Goldman did point to risks in the market, including a stronger dollar. A rising dollar can often lead to weakness in commodities such as oil that are priced in US dollars, since it makes those goods more expensive for foreign buyers. “Large-scale financial liquidation by speculators and investors on rising volatility prompting margin calls (‘the volatility trap’) and recession fears ultimately triggering lower prices in the first place and we cannot completely rule out another liquidity-driven sell-off,” Goldman said. The investment bank forecasts Brent crude, the international oil benchmark, trading at $130 per barrel by the end of the year. On Monday it stood around $102. – CNBC’s Michael Bloom contributed reporting.
.